USA: Debt deflation coupled with an activist federal reserve bank. Stagnant growth for years (Lost Decade) with a added chance of hyperinflation should money printing cause loss of faith in the dollar.
Europe: Banking fragility, aka Lehman cascade all over again but with french/spanish/italian and perhaps German banks. The Euro likely to splinter as German voters revolt on bailouts of the eurozone. Expect crashing GDP and hyperinflation in some southern euoprean countries should this happen
China: Massive structural malinvestments in highend real estate propped up by decades of negative interest rate used to prop up value destroying SOEs. Hand landing likely to pop consumer discretionary and commodity tied countries like australia and chile. The China growth story is real in the long run, but there will be a painful bump along the way, it happened in Latin America and SE Asia, China is no exception.
Japan: Horrendous Demographics coupled with now negative savings rate means the 10 year government bond interest rate will be unable to remain at 1% as domestic savers start collecting cash for retirement. Savings rate is expected to be -10% by 2015, with such a huge debt burden, expect a spiral of interest and debt load that will lead to hyperinflation (foreshadowing america’s future)
Russia: Oil prices should fall with the world in contraction and growth nowhere to be found, combined with a declining population will prevent strong growth from taking place, though government finances remain stable so Russia will be relatively safe.
Latin America: Expect turmoils in some commodity driven markets like argentina and peru. Brazil has a strong enough domestic economy and may be relatively stable from any downturn, although the consumer credit bubble looks worrisome and could become a major issue.
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